THE HILLARY FACTOR – AT 7:32 P.M. ET:  Hillary Clinton today formally rejected any interest in the vice presidential nomination on the Democratic ticket in 2012.  There has been roaring speculation over the last two days, started by Bob Woodward, that Hillary would replace Biden, giving the Democratic ticket a boost. 

Despite denials, I still maintain that Woodward was right, that this is being discussed in important Democratic circles.  Polls taken today show that, across the board, the replacement would be popular.  Democrats, Republicans, and independents all go for it.  Presumably, Biden would then be made secretary of state.

Some pundits argued today that the switch was unlikely for these reasons:  1) It's out of character for Obama, who doesn't much like dramatic gestures; 2) Hillary might actually consider it a demotion, even though it would give her a clear track to the presidential nomination in 2016; 3) Biden, who is gaffe-prone, couldn't handle the secretary of state position, which Hillary has handled with some ability.

Of course, we can escalate the speculation:  What if the economy continues sour and Obama's poll numbers really tank?  Will a committee of wise men visit the White House and suggest that dear leader consider the joys of the private sector?  It could happen, although I doubt if it would take a committee to convince Obama to become a one-term president.  If he felt he couldn't overcome the poll deficit – and such modesty is not like him – he might step aside to avoid the humiliation of defeat.  In that case, Hillary would be the heiress apparent. 

Much speculation today at a luncheon I attended about the Republican 2012 nominee.  I was sitting at a table with some of the leading political analysts in the country, and no one could come up with a name that excited anyone else.  That may, sadly, be the most important political story as we enter the 2012 presidential sweepstakes – the lack of a truly electric figure to carry the GOP banner.  Ronnie, where are you now?

October 6, 2010